Real Estate of NVA – Third Quarter Market Analysis – October 2023

Let’s dive into the October 2023 Third Quarter Real Estate of NVA Market Analysis Report โ€“ a story of starvation! Picture this: the market’s sizzling hot and hungry, but it’s got historically low inventory, creating a real estate dilemma!

The headline news, points fingers at high interest rates, claiming they’re playing spoilsport with sales. But the truth is, it’s not all about the interest rates, folks. There are simply 25% fewer homes on the market this year compared to the last, creating a real estate version of “Where’s Waldo.” Interest rates do have a say in the game, but with inventory doing its best disappearing act, competition’s dropped and property conditions are under the spotlight like never before.

Now, for all you market-watching ๐ŸŽ‡ wizards out there, trying to time the market and wait for those elusive lower interest rates might just result in some premium prices and epic bidding battles. And here’s the kicker โ€“ there’s no magic wand that’s going to make inventory suddenly grow with lower interest rates.

Sure, interest rates can be a bit of a buzzkill, but here’s the silver lining: buying rather than renting can score you some sweet tax write-offs for the interest you pay. So, even with interest rates playing hard to get, you’ve got a tax superhero swooping in to save the day.

Let’s Jump into the Highlights:


๐Ÿš€ Falls Church City is cooling off slightly

๐Ÿš€ Moderate YoY YTD appreciation in the 1 – 4% range

๐Ÿš€ October closed with a ๐Ÿ”ฅsurge for two cities:ย  Fredericksburg City (up 6.36% YoY YTD) and Manassas Park City (up 9.18% YoY YTD)


๐Ÿš€ย ~80% Under Contract in < 10 Days.

๐Ÿš€ ~90%+ Under Contract within 3 Weeks.


๐Ÿš€ย Down25%+ – not due to interest rates.

๐Ÿš€ย 25% Less inventory on the market than 2022 – New / Active / Sold inventory trend lines are on top of each other – What comes to market sells FAST!

๐Ÿš€ 1 month or less of inventory in any given city, at any given price point, on any given weekend. We work week to week, yes!


๐Ÿš€ย 1 in 5 Sales has a concession of ~$8K.

๐Ÿš€ย Negotiability is slipping from 2022, however, not across the board.


๐Ÿš€ Homes are well priced at listing with small premiums and extreme competition for the “Pottery Barn”,ย cream puff homes.

๐Ÿš€ Just because inventory is historically low does not equal anything will sell at any price. Know your target buyer!


๐Ÿš€ Moderate appreciation, 1% – 4%,

๐Ÿš€ We are starting to see 6%+, even into double digits with the dropping interest rates indicating a competitive market in some regions by structure type.

๐Ÿš€ In desirable locations, Condominiums and Townhomes are experiencing a surge in premiums as a tradeoff of affordability over location.


The big story that is brewing are the declining interest rates and competition is firing on all cylinders:ย  Minimal Concessions, Market Speed, Premiums on Pricing and Throttled Inventory choking the market of hungry buyers. The buyers are figuring out this market and adjusting their requirements and either downsizing for affordability (Condominiums and Townhomes) in order to maintain desirable locations.

As I was reviewing highlights for each City / County, I found myself repeatedly noticing higher levels of appreciation for Townhomes and thus since I’m a visual person, I put together a new chart to easily see how each structure type is stacking up City by City and County by County.

The chart below highlights 6%+ and into double digit appreciation for Condominiums and Townhomes and we are seeing the sprawl push out to Prince William and Stafford Counties, again for affordability. It’s all about trade-offs to achieve home ownership!



This report spans across the THIRTEEN jurisdictions 10 of the Northern Virginia Economic Development Alliance and I’ve added Fredericksburg City, Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties โ€” a testament to its comprehensive embrace of the region’s heartbeat. Engage with us, with a quarterly rendezvous of videos and insights that illuminate the path forward.ย ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ˜๏ธ๐ŸŽข





No one can predict with accuracy what will happen in the Real Estate Market, but one thing is for sure, rent is throw away and always rises!ย 

We look forward to speaking with you as you stride towards your real estate aspirations in the place we call home, the realm we cherish โ€” Northern Virginia.

As always . . .

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Michele Hudnall


About the Author

In the vast tapestry of Northern Virginia, Michele's roots run deep, with an unyielding passion to help her clients make smart moves. This region is a sprawling masterpiece, each corner radiating a unique personality that caters to diverse lifestyles. Michele's unwavering mission is to delve into the essence of her clients' aspirations, meticulously curating the perfect match between their dreams and the vibrant tapestry of Northern Virginia, even as lifestyles evolve and dreams take new forms. 

Armed with a formidable arsenal of market analysis, strategic prowess, and unrivaled consulting expertise, Michele empowers her clients to navigate the ever-shifting currents of the real estate landscape. She unveils the intricate dynamics and fierce competition that shape the market, providing her clients with a profound understanding that fuels their success. While the emotional tides of property transactions can easily sway hearts, Michele stands unwavering as the guardian of her clients' best interests, ensuring they relish every precious moment along the way.

Michele has forged an alliance with the industry's trailblazers, joining forces with Real Broker, LLC, a groundbreaking startup that challenges the very fabric of conventional practices. With an expanding network of exceptional agents nationwide, armed with cutting-edge resources, Michele remains at the vanguard of the evolving real estate industry, poised to transform dreams into concrete reality. 

Discover the unparalleled service, the unwavering commitment, and the magnetic spirit that will guide you towards finding not just a home, but a sanctuary where dreams flourish. 

Are you ready to unlock the door to your NVA destiny?